CARR HEADING WEST IF YOUNG DECLARES?

There was rampant speculation leading up to last night's National Championship that Texas junior quarterback VINCE YOUNG would opt to declare for the NFL Draft if the Longhorns captured the title with a win over USC in the Rose Bowl. Well, part one of that achievement took place, as Young, who set several records on the way to capturing the Offensive MVP Award in a 41-38 victory over the Trojans, was able to hoist the National Championship Trophy along with his teammates.

In a post-game press conference on ESPNEWS running back Selvin Young was quoted as saying, "Vince (Young) and I are going to come back and try to win it again and try to win 40 (games) in a row, we are roommates and that is my brother". Those are fine words said while basking in the moments following one of the biggest college football victories of all time. However, once reality sets in, the chance for Young to be taken #1 overall, and by his hometown team, the Houston Texans, might be too good to pass up.

Young would give the Texans an instant upgrade in local and regional marketing, as well as increase sales of team merchandise, especially jersey #10, which would certainly be a Top-5 selling jersey throughout the NFL. On top of that the season ticket sales for home games would go through the roof, as would the potential for national exposure in terms of games on Sunday or Monday night football created by the NFL schedule-makers who would love to highlight match ups against a divisional rival like the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning or potential games against Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb or an inter-state contest against the Dallas Cowboys next year.

Now that we have given the "Pros" to making a push toward obtaining the rights to Vince Young lets see just how hard it would be to get this accomplished. Trading current starting quarterback David Carr would require re-working his contract, since he is owed an escalator bonus on-or-by March 1st, 2006, which would also trigger a new two-or-three year contract. The Texans would be responsible for between $5.5-and-$8 million dollars, depending on the extension choice they would select, so if they then decided to deal Carr the entire amount of that signing bonus would count instantly against their cap. If they decided to keep Carr he would count between $5.0-and-$5.25 million against their 2006 salary cap, but with the cap figuring to rise they would likely be able to take the extra hit, as well as receive market value compensation for his services.

One look at Carr's resume will show that the four-year starter has thrown just 48 touchdowns against 53 interceptions, but that over the past two years his ratio has improved to 30:25, while he has completed over 60% of his passes. He's also been sack-and-fumble prone, losing 15 fumbles and being sacked 208 times, an average of 52 per year. On the plus side, he has very good mobility, gaining over 1,000 yards rushing in his career, terrific toughness and durability, as he has started 59 of 60 career games, and the arm strength to throw the long ball with impressive touch. He completed 69% of his passes on second down this year, but an inconsistent ground attack caused his percentage to slip on third down. The most impressive part of his stat line is that between the opponents' 19-and-goal line (red zone) he threw eight touchdowns against just one interception.

So, now that we know the background on Carr and his contract status… where could the Texans find an ideal trading partner? Well, it would have to be a team that needs a starting quarterback, has a few high picks or young prospects, and finally the cap room to accept both Carr, and give him a new long-term contract. Where would we find such a place, easy, the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders will likely release veteran quarterback Kerry Collins, thus clearing out over $12 million dollars in cap space, secondly, Carr's arm strength, mobility and the fact that he would be returning to the West Coast, a place he knows and has very fond memories, since he grew up in Bakersfield, California before starring at Fresno State, definitely plays into what the Raiders desire in a future signal caller.

The Raiders would likely have to part with their 2006 second round choice (#39), which would give the Texans three of the Top-40 picks (#1, #33, #39) and a total of five choices on day one, as well as a potential young starting player along the lines of defensive back Nnamdi Asomugha, wide receiver Doug Gabriel or defensive lineman Tommy Kelly, as well as a conditional-type 2007 draft choice, possibly a third-or-fourth rounder that could convert into a second round choice based on Carr's playing time with the Raiders in 2006.

Carr, who is 1-0 against the Raiders in his career, throwing for 228 yards and one touchdown in his only career match-up against the Silver-&-Black back in 2004, but only 2-5 in seven career games against the AFC West, looked unsettled and upset with the lack of production and the buildup of losses this past season, so it would give both him and the Texans a new lease on life.

The Raiders would have a young, gun-slinging signal caller to pair with wide receivers Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, as well as running back LaMont Jordan, especially in an AFC West Division that is full of veteran quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Texans add a "Hometown Hero", save long-term cap space, add a secondary piece to a still-developing roster, and with a total of five choices in the first three rounds of the draft could very well secure the services of multiple starters to combine with a young roster that would be stocked with Young, Domanick Davis (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Jerome Mathis (WR), Chester Pitts (OT), Travis Johnson (DL), Antwan Peek (OLB), and Dunta Robinson (CB). The Texans finished ranked 30th of 32 teams in total offense, so with the right mixture of new head coach, draft choices and marketing a local product like Vince Young, a former Madison High School and University of Texas idol, would make for a much-improved product in 2006.